Orthostatic Blood Pressure Change, Dizziness, and Risk of Dementia in the ARIC Study.

BACKGROUND: Abnormal orthostatic blood pressure (BP) regulation may result in cerebral hypoperfusion and brain ischemia and contribute to dementia. It may also manifest as early symptoms of the neurodegenerative process associated with dementia. The relationship between the magnitude and timing of orthostatic BP responses and dementia risk is not fully understood. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort analysis of the associations of orthostatic BP changes and self-reported orthostatic dizziness with the risk of dementia in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study (ARIC). We calculated changes in BP from the supine to the standing position at 5 measurements taken within 2 minutes after standing during the baseline visit (1987-1989). The primary outcome was adjudicated dementia ascertained through 2019. RESULTS: Among 11 644 participants (mean [SD] age, 54.5 [5.7] years; 54.1% women; 25.9% Black), 2303 dementia cases were identified during a median follow-up of 25.9 years. Large decreases in systolic BP from the supine to standing position measured at the first 2 measurements ≈30 and 50 seconds after standing, but not afterward, were associated with orthostatic dizziness and a higher risk of dementia. Comparing a decrease in systolic BP of ≤-20 or >-20 to -10 mm Hg to stable systolic BP (>-10 to 10 mm Hg) at the first measurement, the adjusted hazard ratios were 1.22 (95% CI, 1.01-1.47) and 1.10 (95% CI, 0.97-1.25), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Abnormal orthostatic BP regulation, especially abrupt drops in BP within the first minute, might be early risk markers for the development of dementia. Transient early orthostatic hypotension warrants more attention in clinical settings.

Chance, ignorance, and the paradoxes of cancer: Richard Peto on developing preventative strategies under uncertainty.

During the early 1980s both cancer biology and epidemiological methods were being transformed. In 1984 the leading cancer epidemiologist Richard Peto - who, in 1981, had published the landmark Causes of Cancer with Richard Doll - wrote a short chapter on "The need for ignorance in cancer research", in which the worlds of epidemiology and speculative Darwinian biology met. His reflections on how evolutionary theory related to cancer have become known as "Peto's paradox", whilst his articulation of "black box epidemiology" provided the logic of subsequent practice in the field. We reprint this sparkling and prescient example of biologically-informed epidemiological theorising at its best in this issue of the European Journal of Epidemiology, together with four commentaries that focus on different aspects of its rich content. Here were provide some contextual background to the 1984 chapter, and our own speculations regarding various paradoxes in cancer epidemiology. We suggest that one reason for the relative lack of progress in indentifying novel modifiable causes of cancer over the last 40 years may reflect such exposures being ubiquitous within environments, and discuss the lessons for epidemiology that would follow from this.

Educational Attainment and Dementia: Mediation by Mid-Life Vascular Risk Factors.

INTRODUCTION: Lower education is associated with higher burden of vascular risk factors in mid-life and higher risk of dementia in late life. We aim to understand the causal mechanism through which vascular risk factors potentially mediate the relationship between education and dementia. METHODS: In a cohort of 13,368 Black and White older adults in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, we assessed the relationship between education (grade school, high school without graduation, high school graduate or equivalent, college, graduate/professional school) and dementia among all participants and among those with incident stroke. Cox models were adjusted for age, race-center (a variable stratified by race and field center), sex, apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 genotype, and family history of cardiovascular disease. Causal mediation models assessed mediation by mid-life systolic blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, body mass index, and smoking. RESULTS: More education was associated with 8 to 44% lower risk of dementia compared to grade school-level education in a dose-response pattern, while the relationship between education and post-stroke dementia was not statistically significant. Up to 25% of the association between education and dementia was mediated through mid-life vascular risk factors, with a smaller percentage mediated for lower levels of education. INTERPRETATION: A substantial proportion of the relationship between education and dementia was mediated through mid-life vascular risk factors. However, risk factor modification is unlikely to fully address the large educational disparities in dementia risk. Prevention efforts must also address disparities in socioeconomic resources leading to divergent early-life education and other structural determinants of mid-life vascular risk factors. ANN NEUROL 2023;94:13-26.

Dementia Risk Following Ischemic Stroke: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Factors Collected at Time of Stroke Diagnosis.

BACKGROUND: The majority of stroke cases are ischemic in origin and ischemic stroke survivors represent a high-risk population for progression to dementia. OBJECTIVE: To determine incidence rates and predictors of dementia after ischemic stroke. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis compliant with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA). RESULTS: 5,843 studies were screened for title and abstract. 292 eligible studies were screened for full text. A total of 22 studies met the inclusion criteria and were included, representing 55,929 ischemic stroke survivors. Cumulative incidence of dementia after stroke was 20% at 5 years, 30% at 15 years, and 48% at 25 years of follow-up. Dementia incidence rates were 1.5 times higher among patients with recurrent ischemic stroke compared to patients with first-time stroke. Predictors of dementia after ischemic stroke included female gender (OR 1.2, 95% CI (1.1, 1.4)), hypertension (1.4, (1.1, 2.0)), diabetes mellitus (1.6, (1.3, 2.1)), atrial fibrillation (1.9, (1.2, 3.0)), previous stroke (2.0, (1.6, 2.6)), presence of stroke lesion in dominant hemisphere (2.4, (1.3, 4.5)), brain stem or cerebellum (OR 0.5, (0.3, 0.9)) or frontal lobe (3.7, (1.2, 12.0)), presence of aphasia (OR 7.9, (2.4, 26.0)), dysphasia (5.8, (3.0, 11.3)), gait impairment (1.7, (1.1, 2.7)), presence of white matter hyperintensities (3.2, (2.0, 5.3)), and medial temporal lobe atrophy (3.9, (1.9, 8.3)). CONCLUSION: Factors routinely collected for stroke patients are a useful resource for monitoring dementia progression in this population. In the present meta-analysis, cardiovascular factors, stroke location, stroke-related disability and chronic brain changes were predictors of dementia after ischemic stroke.

Biological Aging for Risk Prediction of First-Ever Intracerebral Hemorrhage and Cerebral Infarction in Advanced Age.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: successful interventions to prevent cerebrovascular disease and stroke require early identification of persons at risk before clinical manifestation of disease. The literature remains to be sparse on accessible plasma-based biomarkers for monitoring brain health and cerebrovascular disease in advanced age. We assessed the predictive value of biological age (BA) as an early indicator for cerebrovascular disease and risk of first-ever intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and cerebral infarction (CI) in advanced age and compared these relationships with chronological age (CA) and commonly used biomarkers including tau and Aß40 and Aß42. METHODS: The study included Individuals who consented for blood draw and follow-up. We computed biological age using structural equation modelling. The criteria for the biomarkers included their representability of the various body systems; their availability in the Rotterdam study and their pre-hypothesized reflection of aging in other populations. The algorithm integrates biomarkers that represent six body systems involved in overall cerebrovascular health including metabolic function, cardiac function, lung function, kidney function, liver function, immunity, and inflammation. Time to event analysis was conducted using Cox-regression models. Prediction analysis was conducted using Harrel's C and Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: The sample included a total of 1699 individuals at baseline followed up over a median of 11 years. During a period of 15, 780 and 16, 172 person-years, a total of 17 first-ever intracerebral hemorrhage and 83 cerebral infarction cases occurred. In time-to-event analysis, BA showed higher magnitude of associations with ICH compared to CA (HRBA-ICH: 2.30, 95% CI: 1.20, 4.30; HRCA-ICH: 1.40, 95% CI: 0.76, 2.53) and higher precision with CI (HRBA-CI: 1.30, 95% CI: 1.01,1.75; HRCA-CI:1.90, 95% CI: 1.48, 2.66). BA outperformed CA for prediction of ICH (AUC: 0.68 vs 0.53; Harrel's C: 0.72 vs 0.53) and for CI (AUC:0.63 vs 0.62; Harrel's C: 0.68 vs 0.67). CONCLUSIONS: Biological aging (delta biological aging) based on integrated physiology biomarkers provides a novel tool for monitoring and identification of persons at highest risk of cerebrovascular disease in advanced age with varying degrees of precision and magnitude for stroke subtypes. These variations are likely related to differences in pathophysiology of intracerebral hemorrhage and cerebral infarction. Wider validation and applicability require extension of these findings in other comparable samples and in clinical settings.

Whole-exome sequencing of 14 389 individuals from the ESP and CHARGE consortia identifies novel rare variation associated with hemostatic factors.

Plasma levels of fibrinogen, coagulation factors VII and VIII and von Willebrand factor (vWF) are four intermediate phenotypes that are heritable and have been associated with the risk of clinical thrombotic events. To identify rare and low-frequency variants associated with these hemostatic factors, we conducted whole-exome sequencing in 10 860 individuals of European ancestry (EA) and 3529 African Americans (AAs) from the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology Consortium and the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute's Exome Sequencing Project. Gene-based tests demonstrated significant associations with rare variation (minor allele frequency < 5%) in fibrinogen gamma chain (FGG) (with fibrinogen, P = 9.1 × 10-13), coagulation factor VII (F7) (with factor VII, P = 1.3 × 10-72; seven novel variants) and VWF (with factor VIII and vWF; P = 3.2 × 10-14; one novel variant). These eight novel rare variant associations were independent of the known common variants at these loci and tended to have much larger effect sizes. In addition, one of the rare novel variants in F7 was significantly associated with an increased risk of venous thromboembolism in AAs (Ile200Ser; rs141219108; P = 4.2 × 10-5). After restricting gene-based analyses to only loss-of-function variants, a novel significant association was detected and replicated between factor VIII levels and a stop-gain mutation exclusive to AAs (rs3211938) in CD36 molecule (CD36). This variant has previously been linked to dyslipidemia but not with the levels of a hemostatic factor. These efforts represent the largest integration of whole-exome sequence data from two national projects to identify genetic variation associated with plasma hemostatic factors.

APOE ε4 and late-life cognition: mediation by structural brain imaging markers.

The apolipoprotein E allele 4 (APOE-ε4) is established as a major genetic risk factor for cognitive decline and late-onset Alzheimer's disease. Accumulating evidence has linked ε4 carriership to abnormal structural brain changes across the adult lifespan. To better understand the underlying causal mechanisms, we investigated the extent to which the effect of the ε4 allele on cognition is mediated by structural brain imaging markers in the population-based Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study (AGES-Reykjavik). This study included 4527 participants (aged 76.3 ± 5.4 at baseline) who underwent the brain magnetic resonance imaging assessment (of brain tissue volumes, white matter lesion volume, subcortical and cortical infarcts, and cerebral microbleeds) and a battery of neuropsychological tests at baseline. Causal mediation analysis was used to quantify the mediation of the ε4 effect on cognition by these MRI markers, both individually and jointly. We observed that about 9% of the total effect of ε4 carriership on cognition was mediated by white matter lesion volume. This proportion increased to 25% when total brain tissue volume was jointly considered with white matter lesion volume. In analyses separating ε4 homozygotes from ε4 heterozygotes, the effect on global cognition of specifically ε4 homozygosity appeared to be partially mediated by cerebral microbleeds, particularly lobar microbleeds. There was no evidence of mediation of the ε4 effect by cortical or subcortical infarcts. This study shows that the ε4 effect on cognition is partly mediated by white matter lesion volume and total brain tissue volume. These findings suggest the joint role of cerebral small vessel disease and neurodegeneration in the ε4-cognition relationship.

Plasma amyloid-ß40 in relation to subclinical atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disease: A population-based study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We aimed to determine associations of plasma amyloid-ß40 (Aß40) with subclinical atherosclerosis and risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in the general population. METHODS: Between 2002 and 2005, plasma Aß40 was measured by single molecule array (SiMoA®) in 3879 participants of the population-based Rotterdam Study (mean age: 71 years, 61% female). Subclinical atherosclerosis was quantified as computed tomography-assessed calcification volumes. We determined the association of Aß40 with calcification volumes and clinical ASCVD event risk, and repeated the analyses for ASCVD in a replication cohort of 1467 individuals. RESULTS: Higher levels of Aß40 were associated with increased volumes of calcification in the coronary arteries and to a lesser extent extracranial carotid arteries, independent of traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Of all 3879 participants, 748 developed ASCVD during a median 9.7 years of follow-up. In age- and sex-adjusted models, higher Aß40 predisposed to a minor increase in ASCVD risk (HR [95%CI]: 1.11[1.02-1.21] per 1-SD increase in Aß40), driven by coronary heart disease (HR: 1.17[1.05-1.29]) rather than stroke (HR: 1.04[0.93-1.16]). However, excess risk of clinical outcomes was largely explained by baseline differences in cardiovascular risk factors and attenuated after further adjustment (for ASCVD- HR: 1.05[0.96-1.15] and for CHD- HR: 1.08[0.96-1.20]). Results were similar in the replication cohort, with highest risk estimates for CHD (HR: 1.24[1.04-1.48]) in age- and sex-adjusted models, attenuated after adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors (HR: 1.15[0.96-1.39]). CONCLUSIONS: In this population-based study, higher plasma amyloid-ß40 is associated with subclinical atherosclerosis, but not risk of first-ever ASCVD after accounting for traditional cardiovascular risk factors.

Comparison of Mortality Risk With Different Surgeon and Hospital Operative Volumes Among Individuals Undergoing Pancreatectomy by Emulating Target Trials in US Medicare Beneficiaries.

Importance: The association of surgeons' and hospitals' operative volumes with postoperative patient outcomes has been studied for decades and holds important policy implications; however, in many volume-outcome analyses, this association is described without the envisioning of a clear intervention, which often introduces unintentional bias. Acting on such results may lead to unintended consequences from policy interventions or patient recommendations. Objective: To specify how (hypothetical) target trials would be designed to estimate the association between postoperative mortality of patients undergoing operations and a range of surgeon and hospital volume conditions and then to emulate these trials by using observational data. Design, Setting, and Participants: This observational data analysis emulated 4 hypothetical target trials of increasing complexity, ranging from a poorly defined trial that would randomly assign participants only to surgeon volume to one that would randomly assign participants to surgeon volume, hospital volume, and specific surgeon and hospital. This population-based cohort study included 9136 Medicare beneficiaries with a first diagnosis of pancreatic malignant neoplasm who did not require neoadjuvant therapy and underwent pancreatectomy between January 1, 2012, and September 30, 2016. Data analysis was performed between September 1, 2019, and October 8, 2021. Exposures: Number of pancreatectomies performed by surgeon and hospital during the prior year. Main Outcomes and Measures: Ninety-day mortality. Results: The analyses included 9136 Medicare beneficiaries treated by 1358 surgeons at 697 hospitals; median age was 73.3 years (IQR, 69.1-78.1 years), and 4642 were men (51%). When trials with poorly defined interventions on surgeon volume were emulated, the estimated 90-day mortality was 7.9% (95% CI, 6.4%-9.4%) for lower-volume surgeons and 5.2% (95% CI, 2.7%-10.9%) for higher-volume surgeons. When trials with better-defined interventions were emulated, the difference was reduced: 7.8% (95% CI, 6.3%-9.3%) for lower-volume surgeons and 7.2% (95% CI, 6.0%-8.7%) for higher-volume surgeons. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study that emulated 4 different target trials with data from Medicare beneficiaries undergoing pancreatectomy, mortality differences across surgical volume levels were attenuated when the interventions were well defined. The application of the hypothetical target trial framework to this specific volume-outcomes scenario revealed the complexities of this research question and the unintentional biases introduced in prior studies, which emulated poorly defined trials whose results are therefore difficult to interpret. The target trial framework may be of value to outcomes researchers asking questions that correspond to well-defined interventions for the real world.

Association of Long-Term Body Weight Variability With Dementia: A Prospective Study.

BACKGROUND: Body weight variability (BWV) refers to intraindividual weight loss and gain over a period. The association of long-term BWV with dementia remains unclear and whether this association is beyond body weight change is undetermined. METHODS: In the Health and Retirement Study, a total of 5 547 dementia-free participants (56.7% women; mean [SD] age, 71.1 [3.2] years) at baseline (2008) were followed up to 8 years (mean = 6.8 years) to detect incident dementia. Body weight was self-reported biennially from 1992 to 2008. BWV was measured as the coefficient of variation utilizing the body weight reported 9 times across 16 years before baseline. Cox-proportional hazard model was used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: Among the 5 547 participants, a total of 427 incident dementia cases were identified during follow-up. Greater long-term BWV was significantly associated with a higher risk of dementia (HR comparing extreme quartiles: 2.01, 95% CI: 1.48-2.72; HR of each SD increment: 1.21, 95% CI: 1.10-1.32; p-trend < .001) independent of mean body weight and body weight change. This significant association was even observed for BWV estimated approximately 15 years preceding dementia diagnosis (HR of each SD increment: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.03-1.23) and was more pronounced for that closer to diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Our prospective study suggested that greater BWV may be a novel risk factor for dementia.

24-Hour Urinary Sodium and Potassium Excretion and Cardiovascular Risk.

BACKGROUND: The relation between sodium intake and cardiovascular disease remains controversial, owing in part to inaccurate assessment of sodium intake. Assessing 24-hour urinary excretion over a period of multiple days is considered to be an accurate method. METHODS: We included individual-participant data from six prospective cohorts of generally healthy adults; sodium and potassium excretion was assessed with the use of at least two 24-hour urine samples per participant. The primary outcome was a cardiovascular event (coronary revascularization or fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction or stroke). We analyzed each cohort using consistent methods and combined the results using a random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Among 10,709 participants, who had a mean (±SD) age of 51.5±12.6 years and of whom 54.2% were women, 571 cardiovascular events were ascertained during a median study follow-up of 8.8 years (incidence rate, 5.9 per 1000 person-years). The median 24-hour urinary sodium excretion was 3270 mg (10th to 90th percentile, 2099 to 4899). Higher sodium excretion, lower potassium excretion, and a higher sodium-to-potassium ratio were all associated with a higher cardiovascular risk in analyses that were controlled for confounding factors (P≤0.005 for all comparisons). In analyses that compared quartile 4 of the urinary biomarker (highest) with quartile 1 (lowest), the hazard ratios were 1.60 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.19 to 2.14) for sodium excretion, 0.69 (95% CI, 0.51 to 0.91) for potassium excretion, and 1.62 (95% CI, 1.25 to 2.10) for the sodium-to-potassium ratio. Each daily increment of 1000 mg in sodium excretion was associated with an 18% increase in cardiovascular risk (hazard ratio, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.08 to 1.29), and each daily increment of 1000 mg in potassium excretion was associated with an 18% decrease in risk (hazard ratio, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.72 to 0.94). CONCLUSIONS: Higher sodium and lower potassium intakes, as measured in multiple 24-hour urine samples, were associated in a dose-response manner with a higher cardiovascular risk. These findings may support reducing sodium intake and increasing potassium intake from current levels. (Funded by the American Heart Association and the National Institutes of Health.).

Associations of carotid intima media thickness with gene expression in whole blood and genetically predicted gene expression across 48 tissues.

Carotid intima media thickness (cIMT) is a biomarker of subclinical atherosclerosis and a predictor of future cardiovascular events. Identifying associations between gene expression levels and cIMT may provide insight to atherosclerosis etiology. Here, we use two approaches to identify associations between mRNA levels and cIMT: differential gene expression analysis in whole blood and S-PrediXcan. We used microarrays to measure genome-wide whole blood mRNA levels of 5647 European individuals from four studies. We examined the association of mRNA levels with cIMT adjusted for various potential confounders. Significant associations were tested for replication in three studies totaling 3943 participants. Next, we applied S-PrediXcan to summary statistics from a cIMT genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 71 128 individuals to estimate the association between genetically determined mRNA levels and cIMT and replicated these analyses using S-PrediXcan on an independent GWAS on cIMT that included 22 179 individuals from the UK Biobank. mRNA levels of TNFAIP3, CEBPD and METRNL were inversely associated with cIMT, but these associations were not significant in the replication analysis. S-PrediXcan identified associations between cIMT and genetically determined mRNA levels for 36 genes, of which six were significant in the replication analysis, including TLN2, which had not been previously reported for cIMT. There was weak correlation between our results using differential gene expression analysis and S-PrediXcan. Differential expression analysis and S-PrediXcan represent complementary approaches for the discovery of associations between phenotypes and gene expression. Using these approaches, we prioritize TNFAIP3, CEBPD, METRNL and TLN2 as new candidate genes whose differential expression might modulate cIMT.

Population-Based Prevalence of Gastrointestinal Abnormalities at Colon Capsule Endoscopy.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The population prevalence of gastrointestinal (GI) disease is unclear and difficult to assess in an asymptomatic population. The aim of this study was to determine prevalence of GI lesions in a largely asymptomatic population undergoing colon capsule endoscopy (CCE). METHODS: Participants aged between 50-75 years were retrieved from the Rotterdam Study, a longitudinal epidemiological study, between 2017-2019. Participants received CCE with bowel preparation. Abnormalities defined as clinically relevant were Barrett segment >3cm, severe ulceration, polyp >10 mm or ≥3 polyps in small bowel (SB) or colon, and cancer. RESULTS: Of 2800 invited subjects, 462 (16.5%) participants (mean age 66.8 years, female 53.5%) ingested the colon capsule. A total of 451 videos were analyzed, and in 94.7% the capsule reached the descending colon. At least 1 abnormal finding was seen in 448 (99.3%) participants. The prevalence of abnormalities per GI segment, and the most common type of abnormality, were as follows: Esophageal 14.8% (Barrett's esophagus <3 cm in 8.3%), gastric 27.9% (fundic gland polyps in 18.1%), SB abnormalities 33.9% (erosions in 23.8%), colon 93.3% (diverticula in 81.2%). A total of 54 participants (12%) had clinically relevant abnormalities, 3 (0.7%) in esophagus/stomach (reflux esophagitis grade D, Mallory Weiss lesion and severe gastritis), 5 (1.1%) in SB (polyps > 10 mm; n = 4, severe ulcer n = 1,) and 46 (10.2%) in colon (polyp > 10 mm or ≥3 polyps n = 46, colorectal cancer n = 1). CONCLUSIONS: GI lesions are very common in a mostly asymptomatic Western population, and clinically relevant lesions were found in 12% at CCE. These findings provide a frame of reference for the prevalence rates of GI lesions in the general population.

Long-term diet quality and its change in relation to late-life subjective cognitive decline.

BACKGROUND: Evidence regarding the role of diet quality, especially its change, in subjective cognitive decline (SCD) is scarce. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to examine associations of long-term diet quality scores, including the Alternate Mediterranean Diet (AMED), Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH), and Alternate Healthy Eating Index 2010 (AHEI-2010), with SCD in the Nurses' Health Study. METHODS: We followed 49,493 female registered nurses (mean age in 1984: 48 y) from 1984 to 2014. Diet scores were derived from 7 repeated FFQs in 1984, 1986, and every 4 y afterward until 2006. Self-reported SCD was assessed in 2012 and 2014 by a 7-item questionnaire on memory and cognition changes. Categorical SCD score was classified as "none" (0 points, 40.8%), "moderate" (0.5-2.5 points, 46.9%), and "severe" (3-7 points, 12.3%). RESULTS: Multinomial and linear regression models were adjusted for total calorie intake, demographic characteristics, lifestyle, and clinical factors. Comparing the top with the bottom quintiles of AMED, DASH, and AHEI-2010, multivariable-adjusted ORs (95% CIs) for severe SCD compared with none were 0.57 (0.51, 0.64), 0.61 (0.55, 0.68), and 0.81 (0.73, 0.90), respectively. Similar associations remained for the 3 diet indexes evaluated 28 y before SCD assessment. Compared with participants with the lowest diet quality tertiles in both remote and recent years, the lowest odds of severe SCD were observed among those who maintained the highest diet quality tertiles over time, with 40%, 32%, and 20% lower odds of severe SCD for AMED, DASH, and AHEI-2010, respectively. Moreover, the odds of severe SCD were lower among those with improved diets over time; for each SD higher in diet quality change, the reductions in risk were 11% for AMED, 5% for DASH, and 3% for AHEI-2010, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support beneficial roles of long-term adherence to, and improvement in, healthy dietary patterns for the maintenance of subjective cognition in women.

Longitudinal Body Weight Change, Visit-To-Visit Body Weight Fluctuation, and Cognitive Decline Among Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: The evidence regarding dementia and late-life weight change is inconsistent, and data on body weight fluctuation and dementia are limited. OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that weight loss and substantial weight fluctuation predict cognitive decline independent of body weight and traditional risk factors of dementia. METHODS: This study utilized longitudinal data from the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center for 10,639 stroke- and dementia-free older adults (60.9%female, mean age 71.6 years, median follow-up 5.5 years). Trends in weight change and weight fluctuation were estimated for each individual by regressing repeated body weight measurements on time. Cognitive decline was examined as diagnostic progression from normal to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or dementia and from MCI to dementia. RESULTS: Compared to participants with stable weight, those with weight loss had increased odds of diagnostic progression (adjusted OR = 1.35, 95%CI [1.21, 1.51]). Also, large weight fluctuation was associated with increased odds of diagnostic progression (OR comparing the extreme quartiles = 1.20, 95%CI [1.04, 1.39]) after adjusting for traditional risk factors for dementia and body weight change. The magnitude of the association appeared larger among those older than 80 and those with 3 or more cardiometabolic risk factors at baseline (both p for interaction < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Weight loss and substantial weight fluctuation during late-life were associated with increased odds of cognitive decline independent of body weight and traditional risk factors of dementia. Our results suggested the linkage between late-life body weight instability and cognitive decline especially among those with greater age or higher cardiometabolic risk.

Association Between Blood Pressure Variability With Dementia and Cognitive Impairment: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

[Figure: see text].

Biological age in healthy elderly predicts aging-related diseases including dementia.

Application of biological age as a measure of an individual´s health status offers new perspectives into extension of both lifespan and healthspan. While algorithms predicting mortality and most aging-related morbidities have been reported, the major shortcoming has been an inability to predict dementia. We present a community-based cohort study of 1930 participants with a mean age of 72 years and a follow-up period of over 7 years, using two variants of a phenotypic blood-based algorithm that either excludes (BioAge1) or includes (BioAge2) neurofilament light chain (NfL) as a neurodegenerative marker. BioAge1 and BioAge2 predict dementia equally well, as well as lifespan and healthspan. Each one-year increase in BioAge1/2 was associated with 11% elevated risk (HR 1.11; 95%CI 1.08-1.14) of mortality and 7% elevated risk (HR 1.07; 95%CI 1.05-1.09) of first morbidities. We additionally tested the association of microRNAs with age and identified 263 microRNAs significantly associated with biological and chronological age alike. Top differentially expressed microRNAs based on biological age had a higher significance level than those based on chronological age, suggesting that biological age captures aspects of aging signals at the epigenetic level. We conclude that accelerated biological age for a given age is a predictor of major age-related morbidity, including dementia, among healthy elderly.

Immune age and biological age as determinants of vaccine responsiveness among elderly populations: the Human Immunomics Initiative research program.

The Human Immunomics Initiative (HII), a joint project between the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and the Human Vaccines Project (HVP), focuses on studying immunity and the predictability of immuneresponsiveness to vaccines in aging populations. This paper describes the hypotheses and methodological approaches of this new collaborative initiative. Central to our thinking is the idea that predictors of age-related non-communicable diseases are the same as predictors for infectious diseases like COVID-19 and influenza. Fundamental to our approach is to differentiate between chronological, biological and immune age, and to use existing large-scale population cohorts. The latter provide well-typed phenotypic data on individuals' health status over time, readouts of routine clinical biochemical biomarkers to determine biological age, and bio-banked plasma samples to deep phenotype humoral immune responses as biomarkers of immune age. The first phase of the program involves 1. the exploration of biological age, humoral biomarkers of immune age, and genetics in a large multigenerational cohort, and 2. the subsequent development of models of immunity in relation to health status in a second, prospective cohort of an aging population. In the second phase, vaccine responses and efficacy of licensed COVID-19 vaccines in the presence and absence of influenza-, pneumococcal- and pertussis vaccines routinely offered to elderly, will be studied in older aged participants of prospective population-based cohorts in different geographical locations who will be selected for representing distinct biological and immune ages. The HII research program is aimed at relating vaccine responsiveness to biological and immune age, and identifying aging-related pathways crucial to enhance vaccine effectiveness in aging populations.

Strengthening Health Services Research Using Target Trial Emulation: An Application to Volume-Outcomes Studies.

The number of operations that surgeons have previously performed is associated with their patients' outcomes. However, this association may not be causal, because previous studies have often been cross-sectional and their analyses have not considered time-varying confounding or positivity violations. In this paper, using the example of surgeons who perform coronary artery bypass grafting, we describe (hypothetical) target trials for estimation of the causal effect of the surgeons' operative volumes on patient mortality. We then demonstrate how to emulate these target trials using data from US Medicare claims and provide effect estimates. Our target trial emulations suggest that interventions on physicians' volume of coronary artery bypass grafting operations have little effect on patient mortality. The target trial framework highlights key assumptions and draws attention to areas of bias in previous observational analyses that deviated from their implicit target trials. The principles of the presented methodology may be adapted to other scenarios of substantive interest in health services research.